Economy. "Demographic Slump": The Montaigne Institute Worried About France's Future

In its report "France 2040: Projections for Political Action," published this Wednesday, the Montaigne Institute expressed its concern about France's socioeconomic future. " Demographic stagnation ," "productivity stagnation," and "increasing public debt": the anticipated deterioration of these three indicators, by prolonging the current trend in the curves, is "seriously hampering the national room for maneuver," according to the report's summary.

The result of 18 months of work, the study aims to "make politicians face up to their responsibilities" and "highlight the cost of inaction," according to Bruno Tertrais, the report's coordinator. The "negative trends" highlighted "reinforce each other," he says. For example, "the aging of the population and the sharp decline in the birth rate are not going to solve our productivity problem in the next ten to fifteen years."

According to the report, by 2040, "those aged 65 or over will represent 26 to 28% of the population in 2040, bringing the dependency ratio between active and inactive people to around 50%." However, "if we do not see a reversal of the downward trend in the number of hours worked [...], we risk entering for a very long time into an economy that will be structurally sluggish from a growth point of view," according to Bruno Tertrais.

The Montaigne Institute believes that the "silo" study of different issues - climate, education, health, internal security, regional planning, etc. - no longer "works", and points to "an acceleration of dynamics" and "an increasing interweaving" of themes.

Added to this "double bind" of demographic and climate change over the next fifteen years are the state's usual difficulties "in regional planning, health, and public education," and "an increasingly conflictual international environment," according to Bruno Tertrais. "This is where these traditional failings of France pose even more of a problem than they did 30 years ago," insists the report's coordinator.